AEMETIS, INC. Annual Report: What Investors Need to Know

Business Overview

Aemetis, Inc. is a renewable fuels and biochemical company focused on producing low-carbon intensity products. It primarily produces ethanol and biodiesel, and is making substantial investments in next-generation renewable fuels like sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and renewable diesel. The company leverages proprietary technologies and government incentives to help decarbonize the transportation and industrial sectors. This past year, Aemetis advanced its sustainable energy and advanced biofuels projects, making progress on key development initiatives, particularly its California-based efforts for renewable diesel and SAF, even while navigating a challenging market.

Financial Performance

Aemetis reported a net loss for the year, consistent with a company in a significant growth and development phase. While revenue from existing operations likely remained stable or saw modest growth, it was insufficient to offset the substantial capital expenditures and operational costs of scaling new projects. The company prioritizes long-term project completion and market penetration over immediate profitability. Therefore, investors should view production capacity expansion and project milestones as key indicators of its progress at this stage.

Shareholder value significantly declined, with the stock price closing at $1.39 on December 31, 2025, down from $2.69 at the end of 2024. This drop reflects broader market pressures, investor sentiment, and the capital-intensive nature of the company's ongoing project development.

Risk Factors

Beyond general market volatility, several specific risks could impact Aemetis's stock and operations:

• Project Execution Risk: Delays in completing major projects like the Riverbank renewable diesel plant or the India expansion could significantly impact future revenue and profits.
• Capital Intensity and Funding Risk: The company's growth relies heavily on securing substantial capital. Difficulty obtaining financing or grants could slow development.
• Regulatory and Policy Changes: Aemetis's business model depends heavily on government incentives and environmental regulations (e.g., California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard). Adverse changes could harm project profitability.
• Commodity Price Volatility: Fluctuations in feedstock prices (e.g., corn, waste oils) and finished product prices (e.g., ethanol, diesel) can affect margins.
• Customer Concentration Risk: The report highlights customer concentration in its India Biodiesel and California Ethanol segments. Relying on a few key customers means losing a major customer or a significant change in their purchasing habits could significantly impact sales and profits.
• Cybersecurity Risk: The company has a structured cybersecurity program led by the CFO and overseen by the Board. However, increasing reliance on digital infrastructure means a successful cyberattack could disrupt operations, compromise data, or incur significant costs.

Management Discussion

Management highlighted a strategic focus on expanding Aemetis's portfolio of advanced renewable fuels and biochemicals, despite a challenging market and significant decline in shareholder value. The company continued to operate with a net loss, consistent with its growth and development phase, where substantial capital expenditures for new projects outweighed revenue from existing operations.

Key operational achievements included securing significant non-dilutive funding through various grants from entities like the California Energy Commission, CalFire, USDA, and PGE. These grants are critical for reducing risk and accelerating green initiatives. Progress on the Riverbank renewable diesel and SAF plant, including securing key permits and advancing construction, was also a major operational achievement. However, challenges included a substantial 48% drop in stock price, ongoing capital requirements straining liquidity, and potential operational issues like permitting delays.

The strategic direction remains firmly focused on completing and ramping up the Riverbank plant, expanding India operations, and continuing investment in carbon capture and other decarbonization technologies. Securing non-dilutive grant funding is a core financial strategy. The Chief Financial Officer's leadership in cybersecurity initiatives indicates a proactive approach to operational resilience. The company is well-positioned to benefit from strong market trends and favorable regulatory conditions, such as decarbonization mandates, SAF growth, government incentives, and sustainable practices.

Financial Health

Aemetis manages a complex debt structure, reflecting the diverse financing needs of its various projects. Debt levels showed a mixed picture this year:

• Third Eye Capital Term Notes: Increased from approximately $97.36 million in 2024 to $102.12 million in 2025.
• Third Eye Capital Revenue Participation Term Notes: Rose from $0.65 million to $1.06 million.
• Third Eye Capital Revolving Credit Facility: Saw a slight increase from $6.06 million to $6.33 million.
• Revolving Notes Series B: Decreased from $5.92 million to $4.96 million.
• Third Eye Capital Carbon Revolving Line: Significantly reduced from $1.92 million to $0.39 million.
• Cilion Shareholder Seller Notes Payable: Increased from $0.48 million to $0.94 million.

Other debt lines, such as Construction Loan Agreements and EB5 Promissory Notes, remained relatively stable. Increases in some debt lines suggest continued capital deployment into projects, while reductions in others indicate active debt management. Investors should closely monitor the company's cash position and working capital, as substantial capital expenditures are ongoing and require strong cash management.

Future Outlook

Aemetis's future hinges on the successful execution and commercialization of its major projects, particularly the Riverbank renewable diesel and SAF facility. The company expects significant growth in production capacity and revenue once these projects become fully operational. Key strategic initiatives include completing and ramping up the Riverbank plant, expanding India operations, and continuing investment in carbon capture and other decarbonization technologies.

Continued involvement in grant programs, such as those from the California Energy Commission, CalFire, USDA, and PGE, highlights a strategy for sustainable growth, supported by external funding and alignment with environmental policies. The company aims to capitalize on the growing demand for low-carbon fuels and the increasing regulatory push for decarbonization. Key milestones for the coming year will include construction progress, securing off-take agreements, and potentially achieving positive cash flow from new operations.

Competitive Position

Aemetis operates in a competitive and rapidly evolving renewable energy landscape. Its competitive advantages include a focus on advanced, low-carbon intensity biofuels (like SAF and renewable diesel) that are in high demand due to increasing regulatory mandates and corporate sustainability goals. The company also benefits from its established operational footprint in California and India, and its proven ability to secure significant government grants.

However, it faces competition from larger, more established energy companies entering the renewable space, as well as other specialized biofuel producers. Its relatively smaller scale and high capital expenditure requirements for new projects can be a disadvantage compared to larger players. Despite this, the company is well-positioned to benefit from several powerful market trends and favorable regulatory conditions, including decarbonization mandates (like California's LCFS), the growth of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), ongoing government incentives, and sustainable practices.